Our man for all things ‘on screen’, Paul Joyce, takes a look at this year’s Oscar nominees and weighs in on who might be taking home that coveted statuette on Hollywood’s big night…
We’re well into awards season and the finish line is in sight. The Globes were quietened around the ravaging LA fires, the ‘critics’ awards seemed to split opinions, and the BAFTAs (embarrassingly) favoured the Brits, again. But there’s momentum now in the run up to the main event, the Oscars, so here are my thoughts on the contenders…
Timothee Chalamet as Bob Dylan in A Complete Unknown (image courtesy of Searchlight Pictures)
First up, Best Actor – or, for its official title, Actor in a Leading Role. Adrien Brody was garnering all the attention for what feels like a fitting follow-up to his gong for The Pianist, but it seems Chalamet is making a dash at the final furlong with his SAG win. And wouldn’t it be a story if he pipped Brody to the claim of youngest winner? Colman Domingo is an outsider, unfortunately, for Sing Sing – and the film is too niche for the Academy, otherwise it would have won more by now, and The Apprentice will be parked because of the politics, so Sebastian Stan won’t get a look in. I think it will be between Brody and Fiennes for a pair of searingly intense performances. Ralph should win, but I suspect the Academy will favour the American.
When it comes to Leading Actress, the smart money was on Karla Gascon in Emilia Perez, simply because the Oscars love an out-there idea every so often, but her past Tweets have cost her the gong. Personally, I come out in hives of any sight or mention of Wicked, and while Cynthia Erivo shows some vulnerability that usually melts the Academy’s hearts, the field is too strong for her to win. Similarly, Fernanda Torres in I’m Still Here feels like a token nomination, there’s just not been enough noise about her. Demi Moore feels like an obvious choice, particularly given the critics’ wins, and the Academy loves a back-from-oblivion story. But could Mikey Madison’s BAFTA win for Anora have turned a few heads?
Demi Moore in The Substance
As for Supporting Actor, there’s a good range again, with some villains (Guy Pearce in The Brutalist and Jeremy Strong in The Apprentice) and pathos (Kieran Culkin’s character in A Real Pain) in the mix. Anora has been coming out strong for the critics (which will rock the actress categories), but Yura Borisov won’t win here. Edward Norton should get it for A Complete Unknown as he is the best actor on the list. Culkin is riding high after Succession, and particularly in showing his range with this performance, but Guy Pearce may sneak through as the outsider – remember how good he was in L.A.Confidential? – and the Academy does like a good villain. Not in the lead, but definitely in the supporting roles.
The field for Supporting Actress is also a broad one, and probably the most unpredictable, with a few likely contenders. Zoe Saldana might be in there to reward Emilia Perez in some categories – and she’ll certainly out-do Ariana Grande – but she’s up against a strong Isabella Rosselini in Conclave and Felicity Jones in The Brutalist. As with Demi Moore and the veteran’s return, I’m reckoning Rosselini should get it – notably with a sprinkling of the sympathy vote following David Lynch’s death.
In the more ‘technical’ categories, this is where The Brutalist, as the year’s big epic, will win out, so Lol Crawley for Cinematography, although he’s up against a strong Greig Fraser with all those tobacco filters for Dune 2, not to mention a throwback to the silver screen from Jarin Blaschke and Nosferatu. As for writing, it has to be Conclave for Best Adapted Screenplay, and there’s a strong field for Original Screenplay with Anora, The Brutalist and The Substance all showing their mettle, but it will go to A Real Pain as the Academy loves Jesse Eisenberg, and a Writer-Director who doesn’t win for the latter (or even get nominated in his case) always gets the token Screenplay win.
Speaking of Director, that will also go to Brady Corbet for The Brutalist, as the year’s epic nominee nearly always gets the director win. Mangold has had form in the past with Walk the Line but is more known for superhero films these days so he won’t get a look-in for A Complete Unknown. Sean Baker for Anora is too ‘indie’ for the Academy, as is Coralie Fargeat for The Substance – and it’s a shame she’s the only female in the line-up – particularly when up against the big nominee. Which, come to think of it, if Conclave and The Brutalist are going head-to-head in most categories, where on earth is Edward Berger?
Adrien Brody and Guy Pearce in The Brutalist (image courtesy of A24)
And that leaves Best Picture. As ever, in the last few years, there seem to be double the amount of nominees as previous, with pretty much all of the above in the running. The likes of Anora and The Substance are too off-the-wall for the main event, Dune is too Sci-Fi (the genre never wins big); Emilia Perez, which should have won more but has fallen foul of bad publicity, will get a token gong for International Feature; Wicked may be epic in scale but musical wins are rare; and A Complete Unknown, Nickel Boys and I’m Still Here will be outgunned. In my opinion, it should go to Conclave, but The Brutalist will win out.
So, there we have it. I’m sure I’ll get a couple of these right, and while there’s plenty of predictability, what makes the Academy Awards fun is always the chance of a shock upset. Let’s hope someone ‘accidentally’ reads out Conclave for Best Picture, eh?
